The Sporting Scene

Baseball Is Better with a Little Risk

棒球多一点风险才更好看
Analytics have transformed how teams manage pitching, unlocking new approaches and fantastic creativity. But the experience of playing and watching the game is about more than what the numbers can tell us.
数据分析已经彻底改变了球队管理投手的方式,带来了新的思路和惊人的创造力。但打球和看球的体验,远不止数字能告诉我们的那些。
October 4, 2026
A teammate patting the Red Sox pitcher Sonny Gray on the back.
Photograph by Maddie Malhotra / Boston Red Sox / Getty

Sonny Gray, the Boston Red Sox pitcher who led the majors in wins this season, made his playoff début in 2013, with the Oakland A’s, a team that won ninety-six games despite having the fourth-lowest payroll in baseball. That team found sustained success in large part by making decisions based on data-driven analysis—including the decision to start Gray that day, rather than Bartolo Colón, a former Cy Young Award winner who, at forty years old, had won eighteen games that season. “We have a lot of smart people in our front office and in our baseball operations,” the team’s manager, Bob Melvin, said to reporters before the game, “and the short of it is it came down to Sonny and the last game he pitched in similar conditions in our ballpark. So that’s the route we’re going to go.” Gray rewarded his manager—and the smart people in the front office—with an old-fashioned pitchers’ duel, throwing a hundred and eleven pitches in eight scoreless innings, giving up only four hits and striking out nine. Justin Verlander threw a hundred and seventeen pitches for the Detroit Tigers and gave up four hits in seven scoreless innings. The A’s won it in the ninth.

桑尼·格雷(Sonny Gray),这位本赛季胜场领跑全联盟的波士顿红袜投手,2013年在奥克兰运动家队完成了季后赛首秀。那支球队虽然薪资总额排在联盟倒数第四,却赢下了九十六场比赛。他们能持续成功,很大程度上靠的是数据驱动的决策——包括那天决定让格雷先发,而不是巴托洛·科隆(Bartolo Colón)。科隆曾是赛扬奖得主,那年四十岁,常规赛赢了十八场。“我们管理层和棒球运营部门有很多聪明人,”球队主教练鲍勃·梅尔文(Bob Melvin)赛前对记者说,“简单来说,最后就是选了桑尼,因为他上一场在类似条件下、在我们主场投得很好。所以就走这条路。”格雷用一场老派的投手对决回报了主教练——以及管理层那些聪明人——投了一百一十一球,八局无失分,只被打出四支安打,送出九次三振。贾斯汀·维兰德(Justin Verlander)为底特律老虎投了一百一十七球,七局无失分,同样只被打四支安打。运动家队在第九局拿下比赛。

The game was already changing when Gray entered the league; it’s changed even more dramatically since then. It’s been almost a decade since teams started using “openers”—pitchers who would stay on the mound for an inning or two before a reliever came in to eat up the lion’s share—or platoons of relievers, chosen to maximize well-studied matchups. Now what was once an interesting experiment has become routine. Late in the 2026 season, the Miami Marlins began bringing starters into games in relief on days when they’d more typically have a practice session, so as not to “waste” those extra pitches. (It’s worth noting that serious injuries have come to seem almost inevitable for big-time pitchers, as they throw harder and harder and put nastier spin on the ball.) In Game One of the A.L. Wild Card Series (the first game of the post-season!), the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox both played so-called bullpen games, without any of their usual rotation pitchers on the mound. After the White Sox won that series, they started their Division Series against the Cleveland Guardians with another one.

格雷进入联盟时,比赛已经在变了;从那以后变化更加剧烈。球队开始使用“开局投手”(opener)——先发投手只投一两局,然后由中继投手吃掉大部分局数——或者用一组中继投手轮番上阵,针对研究透彻的对位来排兵布阵,这已经是差不多十年前的事了。如今,当初那个有趣的实验已经变成了常规操作。2026赛季末段,迈阿密马林鱼队开始让先发投手在原本该进行练习投球的日子上场中继,为的是不“浪费”那些额外的投球数。(值得一提的是,大牌投手似乎越来越难以避免重伤,因为他们投得越来越猛,球的旋转也越来越刁钻。)在美联外卡系列赛第一场——也就是季后赛的第一场比赛!——休斯顿太空人和芝加哥白袜都打了所谓的“牛棚战”,常规先发轮值里没有一个人上场。白袜赢下那个系列赛后,在对阵克利夫兰守护者的分区系列赛中,又用同样的方式开局。

Using relievers in this way isn’t a totally new idea, and there is some common sense in addition to data to support it. The more times a hitter sees a pitcher, the more comfortable he’s likely to be at the plate. And certain pitchers perform better against certain batters. Some teams, using the kind of analytical approach that the A’s pioneered, now focus on those sorts of matchups rather than relying on starters to go deep into games. (The team that really popularized using the bullpen aggressively, the Tampa Bay Rays, has managed repeated success despite a minuscule payroll.) The approach has been so effective—and so disruptive to the game’s flow—that, before the 2020 season, Major League Baseball instituted a new rule requiring that any pitcher brought into a game must face at least three batters and imposed a limit on the number of pitchers a roster can carry.

这样使用中继投手并不是全新的想法,除了数据之外,也有一些常识支撑。打者面对同一个投手的次数越多,站上打击区时就越自在。而且某些投手对付某些打者效果更好。一些球队采用运动家队开创的那种分析思路,现在专注于这类对位,而不是依赖先发投手吃下大量局数。(真正把激进使用牛棚发扬光大的坦帕湾光芒队,尽管薪资微薄,却一再取得成功。)这种做法效果太好——同时对比赛节奏的破坏也太强——以至于在2020赛季之前,美国职业棒球大联盟出台新规,要求任何被换上场的投手必须至少面对三名打者,并限制了球队名单上可携带的投手人数。

Some thought the rules didn’t go far enough—including Verlander, Gray’s matchup in his first playoff start. Verlander hated the trends diminishing the value of starting pitching. Before he retired, at the end of this season, he offered some ideas for how the league could preserve the art, including requiring a starting pitcher who has pitched fewer than ninety pitches to stay on the mound into the seventh inning. (He allowed some caveats for issues like injuries and blowouts.) It’s almost laughable how far from the norm that has become. When Verlander won the Cy Young in 2011, he threw a hundred pitches or more in all thirty-four of his starts. This season, the two locks for the Cy Young, the New York Yankees’ Cam Schlittler and the Milwaukee Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski, threw at least a hundred pitches in a combined total of eight games, out of sixty-two starts.

有人认为规则还不够狠——包括维兰德,格雷季后赛首秀的对手。维兰德痛恨那些削弱先发投手价值的趋势。在本赛季末退役之前,他提出了一些想法,建议联盟如何保住这门技艺,包括要求投球数不足九十球的先发投手必须投到第七局。(他允许因伤病或比分悬殊等情况例外。)这距离如今的常态已经远得几乎可笑。维兰德2011年拿赛扬奖时,三十四场先发场场投满一百球以上。本赛季,赛扬奖的两大热门——纽约洋基的卡姆·施利特(Cam Schlittler)和密尔沃基酿酒人的雅各布·米肖罗夫斯基(Jacob Misiorowski)——在合计六十二场先发中,投满一百球的场次加起来只有八场。

At thirty-six, Gray, who started Game Two of the Wild Card Series between the Sox and the Yankees on Wednesday, is closer in age to Verlander than to Schlittler, who’d beaten the Red Sox in Game One. Still, Gray had one of the best seasons of his career in 2026 and played a central role in getting the Sox to the post-season. And partway through the fifth inning he was still pitching well, having thrown only seventy pitches and given up one run, on a solo shot out of the park. But with two outs, and runners on first and third, the Red Sox manager Chad Tracy pulled him. Gray walked back out to the dugout with his square jaw set in a line of displeasure.

三十六岁的格雷,周三在红袜对洋基的外卡系列赛第二场先发。他的年龄更接近维兰德,而不是第一场击败红袜的施利特。尽管如此,格雷在2026年打出了职业生涯最好的赛季之一,是红袜进入季后赛的关键人物。第五局过半时,他仍然投得很好,只用了七十球,失掉一分——来自一支阳春炮。但两人出局、一三垒有人时,红袜主教练查德·特雷西(Chad Tracy)把他换了下来。格雷走回休息区,方下巴绷成一条不悦的直线。

In his place came Erik Miller. There was some logic to the switch. Gray had given up a few hits, and the next batter, Cody Bellinger, had already had a couple of threatening at-bats. The Yankees batters were moving through the order for the dreaded third time. And the Red Sox bullpen had been the best in the major leagues. Presumably, the Red Sox’s analytics department had detailed, proprietary analysis that informed Tracy’s decision to pull his starter when he did. There was a plan in place, Tracy explained afterward. “It just didn’t work out,” he added.

接替他的是埃里克·米勒(Erik Miller)。这次换人有一定的逻辑。格雷刚被打了几支安打,下一位打者科迪·贝林杰(Cody Bellinger)已经有过几次有威胁的击球。洋基打线正在进入可怕的第三轮面对投手。而红袜的牛棚是全联盟最好的。可以推测,红袜的分析部门有详细的、专属的分析,支撑了特雷西在那个节点换下先发的决定。特雷西赛后解释说,当时有一套计划。“只是没奏效,”他补充道。

A central tenet of the sabermetrics revolution is that choices shouldn’t be judged simply by outcomes, which are determined by all sorts of factors, including random chance. They should be judged by “the process,” as the moneyballing general manager Billy Beane liked to say. Beane, as it happens, was the general manager who drafted Sonny Gray to the A’s. But never mind. Gray was furious with the process that got him pulled, and with the outcome. So were Red Sox fans, after Bellinger stroked a low slider into right field to put the Yankees up by two, triggering a 9–2 rout that sent the Yankees on to the Division Series and the Red Sox out of the playoffs. “I think I’m the best pitcher in the American League going through the order the third time. I think that’s a fact,” Gray said afterward. “Yeah, I mean, I would have liked to live or die with me in that moment, but that’s the competitor I am. And yeah, I think you can probably ask the guys, and they felt the same way.” He added, “I would have liked to have been trusted in that moment.”

赛伯计量学革命的一个核心信条是:选择不应该只看结果来评判,因为结果由各种因素决定,包括随机性。应该看“过程”,正如“点球成金”的总经理比利·比恩(Billy Beane)喜欢说的那样。比恩恰好就是把桑尼·格雷选进运动家队的那位总经理。但先不管这个。格雷对导致他被换下的过程感到愤怒,对结果也一样。红袜球迷同样愤怒,因为贝林杰把一记低位滑球扫向右外野,让洋基领先两分,最终以9比2大胜,把洋基送进分区系列赛,红袜则被淘汰出季后赛。“我认为我是美联第三轮面对打线时最好的投手。我认为这是事实,”格雷赛后说。“是的,我是说,我宁愿在那一刻跟我一起生、一起死,但这就是我的竞争心。而且,我觉得你可以去问问队友们,他们也是同样的感受。”他补充道,“我宁愿在那一刻被信任。”

A reporter did ask one of the guys, Willson Contreras. He mimed zipping his lips. But he didn’t keep his mouth shut entirely. “It’s not enough when you have talent, or you have data or you have computers telling you what to do. This is baseball, and the data is here to help us,” Contreras said. “But, at the end of the day, you’re going to need experience and veteran guys to win games.”

有记者确实问了其中一位队友,威尔森·孔特雷拉斯(Willson Contreras)。他做了个拉上拉链的手势。但他并没有完全闭嘴。“光有天赋、数据或者电脑告诉你该怎么做,是不够的。这是棒球,数据是来帮助我们的,”孔特雷拉斯说。“但归根结底,赢球还是需要经验和老将。”

Ornery guys who think the nerds have gone too far say this kind of stuff all the time. So do competitive athletes who’ve just lost big games. And, of course, not even the most dogmatic stat-heads believe that stats should be treated as immutable laws. What’s more, there were data-oriented factors that might have argued against bringing in Miller, too. (Most obviously: Bellinger was especially good at hitting sliders with runners on base, and Miller depended on his slider; plus, Miller had been rocked in a similar situation the night before, when he also relieved the night’s starter in a tight game and surrendered an immediate home run to Ben Rice.) You could argue that Tracy should have relied on data more, not less.

那些脾气倔、觉得书呆子们走得太远的人,天天都在说这种话。刚刚输掉关键比赛的争强好胜的运动员也一样。当然,即使是最教条的数据派也不认为数据应该被当作不可更改的法则。而且,也有数据导向的因素可能反对换上米勒。(最明显的是:贝林杰在垒上有人的情况下特别擅长打滑球,而米勒恰恰依赖滑球;再加上米勒前一晚在类似局面下被打爆——同样是在胶着比赛中接替当晚的先发,结果立刻被本·赖斯(Ben Rice)轰了一发本垒打。)你可以说特雷西应该更依赖数据,而不是更少。

Their opponent, the Yankees, in fact, went in the other direction—no doubt guided by data of their own. They carried ten pitchers on their roster against the Red Sox, instead of the usual twelve or thirteen. And in Game One, instead of pulling Schlittler, who was throwing a gem, the team’s manager, Aaron Boone, left him on the mound for a hundred and seventeen pitches—the most by any Yankee in more than four years. Then Max Fried threw ninety-eight in Game Two. The Yankees have had the best rotation this season, and we’re likely to see some of their starters in relief as the post-season goes on. Starting pitching has been “the biggest strength for us throughout the year,” Boone said. “It sustained us.”

他们的对手洋基队,实际上走了相反的方向——无疑也有自己的数据指引。对阵红袜时,他们名单上只带了十名投手,而不是通常的十二或十三名。第一场比赛中,洋基主教练阿隆·布恩(Aaron Boone)没有换下投出精彩表现的施利特,而是让他在场上投了一百一十七球——这是四年多以来洋基投手单场最多的一次。然后马克斯·弗里德(Max Fried)在第二场投了九十八球。洋基拥有本赛季最好的先发轮值,随着季后赛推进,我们很可能会看到他们的一些先发投手出现在中继位置。先发投手“整个赛季都是我们最大的优势,”布恩说。“它支撑了我们。”

But Gray, the Red Sox pitcher, was making an emotional appeal as well as a statistical one. It was live or die, as Gray had said. It was about trusting the human side.

但格雷——这位红袜投手——发出的既是数据层面的呼吁,也是情感层面的。正如他所说,那是生死攸关的事。那是关于信任人的一面。

And why not? Sure, the goal of the game is to win, not to satisfy some ancient sporting code, and the insights delivered by the data revolution in sports have helped teams do that—including teams that didn’t have big payrolls. They’ve also improved our understanding of the game in myriad ways. They have unlocked new pitches and new approaches, and have engendered fantastic creativity. But the experiences of the humans playing and watching sports should matter, too. Otherwise, what’s the point?

为什么不呢?当然,比赛的目标是赢球,不是满足某种古老的体育准则,而体育数据革命带来的洞见帮助球队做到了这一点——包括那些没有大额薪资的球队。它们也以无数种方式增进了我们对比赛的理解。它们解锁了新的球路和新的策略,催生了惊人的创造力。但打球的人和看球的人的体验,也应该重要。否则,这一切有什么意义?

For me, the highlight of the season so far has been watching Misiorowski, the Brewers’ ace, blaze fastballs across the plate over and over. Misiorowski was throwing seemingly every pitch a hundred miles per hour, if not a hundred and four. When I wrote about him back in May, I did it with a sense of urgency. I figured he couldn’t keep it up. He’d dial back the velocity, or his team would use him more sparingly to protect him for the playoffs, or his elbow would explode. No one had ever done what he was doing. And no one, I thought, would be allowed to do what he was doing for long.

对我来说,本赛季到目前为止最大的亮点,是看酿酒人王牌米肖罗夫斯基一次又一次地把速球呼啸着投过本垒板。米肖罗夫斯基几乎每一球都投到一百英里每小时,甚至一百零四英里。五月份我写他的时候,带着一种紧迫感。我觉得他不可能一直这样下去。他会降低球速,或者球队会为了保护他打季后赛而减少使用他,或者他的手肘会爆掉。从来没有人做过他在做的事。而且我认为,没有人会被允许长期做他在做的事。

I am very glad to have been wrong. Misiorowski finished with the best earned-run average in baseball, the most strikeouts, and the lowest average number of base runners allowed per inning. He didn’t pitch as many innings as someone like Verlander used to, which might be our loss. But he pushed limits of another sort. He threw more than a thousand fastballs over a hundred miles an hour—nearly five hundred more than anyone else. He made being a starting pitcher look heroic. And the Brewers, as it happened, finished with the best record in baseball.

我很高兴自己错了。米肖罗夫斯基以全联盟最低的自责分率、最多的三振数、以及每局被上垒人数最低收官。他的投球局数不像维兰德当年那么多,这也许是我们的损失。但他突破了另一种极限。他投出了一千多颗时速超过一百英里的速球——比任何人都多出近五百颗。他让当先发投手这件事看起来充满英雄气概。而酿酒人队,恰好以全联盟最佳战绩结束了赛季。

It wasn’t all due to their ace’s exploits. Misiorowski leads his team in wins above replacement (WAR), a stat that measures a player’s impact on winning, alongside the second baseman, Brice Turang, who edges ahead or falls behind depending on the formula. As Ben Lindbergh points out in the Ringer, even the best pitchers have become much less valuable than the top hitters, because of how little they play. But I’m not here to watch a WAR leaderboard. I am here to see what a human can do, and what kind of pressure a person can survive.

这并不全归功于他们王牌的壮举。米肖罗夫斯基在胜利贡献值(WAR)——一项衡量球员对赢球影响的指标——上领跑全队,与二垒手布莱斯·图朗(Brice Turang)并驾齐驱,后者根据不同的计算公式时而领先时而落后。正如本·林德伯格(Ben Lindbergh)在The Ringer上指出的,即使是最好的投手,其价值也远不如顶级打者了,因为他们上场的时间太少了。但我不是来看WAR排行榜的。我是来看一个人能做什么,一个人能承受什么样的压力。

The Brewers are one of those small-market teams whose success has depended on its front office’s ability to pinpoint market inefficiencies and on its use of new player-development data to turn its draft picks into stars. They are, in the era of the Los Angeles Dodgers, the sort of team that’s not supposed to exist anymore. They are not swollen with talent. They don’t hit a lot of home runs. Instead, their batters make good contact. They don’t swing and miss. They’re fast on the base paths. They have a manager who emphasizes trust. They have a bona-fide star—a comet who might someday burn up. Let him light up the sky, I say. We need it all—the decisions grounded in data, and the shooting stars. ♦

酿酒人队是那种小市场球队,他们的成功依赖于管理层精准识别市场低效点,以及利用新的球员发展数据把选秀签变成球星。在洛杉矶道奇的时代,他们本应是不该再存在的球队。他们并不人才济济。他们不怎么打本垒打。相反,他们的打者击球扎实。他们不挥空。他们跑垒很快。他们有一位强调信任的主教练。他们有一颗货真价实的明星——一颗也许终将燃尽的彗星。要我说,就让他照亮天空吧。我们两者都需要——基于数据的决策,以及划破夜空的流星。♦

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