The Sporting Scene

Did the Dodgers Ruin Baseball?

道奇队毁了棒球吗?
Already the title favorites, Los Angeles acquired the league’s best pitcher at the trade deadline—and may have insured a lockout after the season.
作为夺冠头号热门,洛杉矶道奇在交易截止日前又拿下了联盟最佳投手——这或许也提前锁定了赛季结束后的一场劳资停摆。
August 9, 2026
A figure wearing a uniform throws a baseball a blurred crowd is visible behind.
Photograph by Michael Reaves / Getty

This past Tuesday, Tarik Skubal, the reigning back-to-back American League Cy Young Award winner, took the mound at Wrigley Field for his first start as a member of his new team, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Skubal throws hard, with a moderately ostentatious windup: his right leg kicks up high before stretching out in front of him, shifting his six-foot-three, two-hundred-and-forty-pound frame forward and creating the necessary momentum for his powerful fling. (He has thrown the five fastest pitches by a left-handed starter in the pitch-tracking era.) The first batter he saw on Tuesday was Pete Crow-Armstrong, the Cubs center fielder, who’s had one of the hottest bats in baseball this season and is currently the betting favorite for National League M.V.P. (The second-best odds belong to Skubal’s teammate Shohei Ohtani.) Skubal dispatched him with seeming ease. On the final pitch of the at-bat, a nasty ninety-nine-m.p.h. sinker, Armstrong just looked on as it whipped through the strike zone. Meanwhile, a plane flew over Wrigley, bearing a banner that read “THE DODGERS RUINED BASEBALL.”

本周二,连续两届美联赛扬奖得主塔里克·斯库巴尔(Tarik Skubal)站上瑞格利球场的投手丘,完成了加盟洛杉矶道奇后的首秀。斯库巴尔球速极快,投球准备动作略显张扬:右腿高高踢起,再向前伸展,带动他身高一米九、体重近一百一十公斤的身躯前倾,为那记强力挥臂蓄足动能。(在投球追踪时代,左投手投出的最快五颗球,全都出自他手。)他面对的第一个打者是芝加哥小熊的中外野手皮特·克劳-阿姆斯特朗(Pete Crow-Armstrong),这位本赛季手感火热的球员,目前是国联最有价值球员的博彩头号热门。(赔率紧随其后的,是斯库巴尔的队友大谷翔平。)斯库巴尔几乎不费吹灰之力就解决了他。这个打席的最后一球,是一记时速九十九英里的刁钻伸卡球,阿姆斯特朗只能眼睁睁看着它呼啸着穿过好球带。与此同时,一架飞机飞过瑞格利球场上空,拖着一面横幅,上面写着:“道奇队毁了棒球。”

Did they? The arrival of Skubal in Los Angeles seems to have convinced some portion of fans and the baseball commentariat that they have. The Dodgers won the World Series last year and the year before that; they also won it in 2020. During this six-year stretch, the team has systematically acquired baseball’s top talent: its roster now boasts three M.V.P.s (including Ohtani, who’s won the award, unanimously, four times), and, cumulatively, current Dodger players boast forty-nine All-Star nods, nineteen Silver Slugger titles, nine Golden Gloves, four Cy Young Awards, and three Reliever of the Year awards. L.A. acquired Skubal by sending three of its top prospects to the Detroit Tigers—a relatively modest price for arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Two days later, Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, traded for Kris Bubic, a lefty from Kansas City, who made the All-Star Game last season.

他们真的毁了吗?斯库巴尔加盟洛杉矶这件事,似乎让一部分球迷和棒球评论界确信了这一点。道奇队赢下了去年和前年的世界大赛冠军,2020年他们也拿了冠军。在这六年时间里,这支球队系统性地网罗了棒球界的顶尖天赋:如今他们的阵容里有三位最有价值球员(包括四次全票当选的大谷翔平),现役道奇球员累计拥有四十九次全明星提名、十九座银棒奖、九座金手套奖、四座赛扬奖和三座年度最佳后援投手奖。为了得到斯库巴尔,洛杉矶送出了三名顶级新秀给底特律老虎——对于这位堪称棒球界最佳投手的人来说,这个代价相对不算大。两天后,道奇队棒球运营总裁安德鲁·弗里德曼(Andrew Friedman)又交易来了堪萨斯城皇家队的左投手克里斯·布比奇(Kris Bubic),他上个赛季入选了全明星。

Prior to this year’s trade deadline, the Dodgers were already title favorites—they’ve had one of the best run differentials in the league all season—and the consensus after the Skubal trade is that a three-peat is practically a lock. “Tarik Skubal trade brings Dodgers hate, envy . . . and another championship,” the Los Angeles Times declared, a bit prematurely. An A.P. headline named the Dodgers “Public Enemy No. 1.” It’s not just that the Dodgers are dominating; it’s how they’ve done so—they are spending more money than any other team this year, in some cases, many times over. Skubal joins what is perhaps the most élite pitching lineup in baseball history, with fellow All-Stars Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Edwin Díaz, and Tyler Glasnow. Those six pitchers, together, will make a hundred and fifty-eight million dollars this year, a figure greater than what thirteen M.L.B. teams are paying for their entire rosters. Then there are the team’s sluggers—Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández, Kyle Tucker, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy—who, alongside the two-way superstar Ohtani, have given the Dodgers what has statistically been the best offense in the league this season. The Dodgers’ payroll this year, post-Skubal acquisition, is roughly four hundred and thirty million dollars, or about seventy million more than the second most expensive team (Steve Cohen’s Mets), with another hundred and eighty million dollars estimated in tax penalties for spending so much more than other franchises.

在今年交易截止日前,道奇队就已经是夺冠最大热门——整个赛季他们的得分差一直位居联盟前列——而斯库巴尔交易达成后,舆论普遍认为三连冠几乎已成定局。《洛杉矶时报》略显心急地宣称:“塔里克·斯库巴尔交易为道奇招来仇恨、嫉妒……以及又一座冠军。”美联社的一则标题则称道奇队为“头号公敌”。问题不仅在于道奇队正在统治联盟,更在于他们实现统治的方式——他们今年花的钱比其他任何球队都多,有时甚至高出数倍。斯库巴尔加入的,或许是棒球史上最精锐的投手阵容,队友包括全明星投手大谷翔平、山本由伸、布莱克·斯内尔(Blake Snell)、埃德温·迪亚兹(Edwin Díaz)和泰勒·格拉斯诺(Tyler Glasnow)。这六名投手今年的薪资合计将达到一亿五千八百万美元,这个数字比十三支大联盟球队全队的总薪资还要高。再看看他们的强打群——穆奇·贝茨(Mookie Betts)、特奥斯卡·埃尔南德斯(Teoscar Hernández)、凯尔·塔克(Kyle Tucker)、弗雷迪·弗里曼(Freddie Freeman)和马克斯·芒西(Max Muncy)——与二刀流巨星大谷翔平一起,让道奇队本赛季的进攻数据冠绝联盟。在得到斯库巴尔之后,道奇队今年的薪资总额约为四亿三千万美元,比第二贵的球队(史蒂夫·科恩的纽约大都会)高出约七千万美元,此外,由于支出远超其他球队,预计还要缴纳约一亿八千万美元的奢侈税罚款。

So it’s understandable that some fans, post-Skubal trade, have adopted an “Occupy Dodger Stadium” mentality. It doesn’t help that the Dodgers were able to trade for Skubal for a package of prospects, without attaching any big-league talent: Skubal was an expiring contract, and it had been rumored that he would be leaving Detroit to sign with L.A. after the season, trade or not. The Dodgers may have felt more comfortable than other teams going after him, confident that he’d stick around, but the Tigers were motivated to deal, so that they would get something, at least, in return. (In an interview after the trade, Skubal said that he still hoped Detroit would make him an offer in the off-season. “Hopefully those negotiations pick back up in November,” he said, adding, diplomatically, “I would love to return.”) In this way, the Dodgers’ dominance is compounding. With every superstar the Dodgers add, the more attractive they become to other superstars. Put another way, the Dodgers may have become too big to fail. And the real ramifications of this, some have suggested, will arrive not in October, when the world expects the Dodgers to hoist another World Series trophy, but later in the year, when the owners of other teams, dissatisfied with the current arrangement of things, insist on changes that the players can’t abide, causing all baseball to stop for the foreseeable future.

因此,在斯库巴尔交易后,一些球迷产生“占领道奇体育场”的心态,也就不难理解了。更让人意难平的是,道奇队仅用一揽子新秀就换来了斯库巴尔,没有搭上任何大联盟级别的球员:斯库巴尔的合同即将到期,早有传言说,无论是否被交易,他都打算在赛季结束后离开底特律,与洛杉矶签约。道奇队追逐他时或许比其他球队更有底气,相信他会留下来,但老虎队也有动力达成交易,这样至少能换回一些回报。(交易后接受采访时,斯库巴尔说他仍希望底特律能在休赛期给他报价。“希望那些谈判能在十一月重启,”他说,接着又圆滑地补了一句,“我很乐意回来。”)如此一来,道奇队的统治力便形成了复利效应。每增加一位超级巨星,道奇对其他超级巨星的吸引力就增强一分。换句话说,道奇队可能已经变得“大而不能倒”了。一些人认为,这件事真正的后果不会在十月显现——那时全世界都预期道奇会再次举起世界大赛奖杯——而会在今年晚些时候到来:届时,其他球队的老板们对现行格局不满,会坚持推行球员们无法容忍的变革,导致整个棒球运动在可预见的未来陷入停摆。

The league’s current collective-bargaining agreement—the bylaws that set guidelines for payroll, player movement, and the on-field rules—is set to expire just before midnight on December 1st. The contract is negotiated between the league and the players, via their union. By all reports, the process has not been going well. The majority of owners are evidently frustrated at a handful of big-market teams spending so much more than their competition, demanding a salary cap, or a hard limit on how much a team can spend on their roster, with the league floating a $245.3-million figure that is just more than half of what the Dodgers are paying their players this season.

联盟现行的劳资集体谈判协议——这套为薪资、球员流动和场上规则设定框架的章程——将于12月1日午夜前到期。这份合同由联盟和球员通过球员工会谈判达成。据多方报道,谈判进程并不顺利。大多数球队老板显然对少数大市场球队的支出远超竞争对手感到沮丧,他们要求设立工资帽,即对球队阵容支出设定硬性上限,联盟方面提出了一个2.453亿美元的数字,这仅仅比道奇队本赛季支付给球员薪资的一半多一点。

Among fans, much of the reaction to the Dodgers’ dominance has boiled down to a need for “parity”—a word that brings to mind values like fairness and egalitarianism—and a resentment of the team’s owner, Mark Walter, and his deep pockets. One can, of course, connect the Dodger discourse to the broader political moment; a popular internet comedian attempted to channel the D.S.A.-mentum of the recent Democratic primaries into a critique of the team, going viral for comparing the need for a salary cap with Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s attempts to pass a wealth tax in New York City. (“How are the little guys supposed to compete with the Dodgers?”) But this framing, in which a salary cap is a tool in the fight against the M.L.B.’s ruling class, doesn’t quite fit the actual situation. The main obstacle is the players.

在球迷中间,对道奇队统治地位的反应大多归结为对“均势”的诉求——这个词让人联想到公平和平等主义等价值观——以及对球队老板马克·沃尔特(Mark Walter)及其雄厚财力的怨恨。当然,人们可以把关于道奇的讨论与更广泛的政治时刻联系起来;一位网红喜剧演员试图将近期民主党初选中的民主社会主义势头引入对这支球队的批评,他将设立工资帽的必要性与纽约市长候选人佐赫兰·马姆达尼(Zohran Mamdani)在纽约市推动财富税的尝试相提并论,从而走红网络。(“小球队怎么跟道奇队竞争?”)但这种将工资帽视为对抗大联盟统治阶级工具的叙事框架,并不完全符合实际情况。主要的障碍在于球员。

Owners pitched a salary cap once before, in the summer of 1994. In response, the players went on strike, deriding the proposal as anti-labor. The strike ended the season and cancelled the World Series (the first time since 1904 that no world champion was crowned). That strike lasted two hundred and thirty-two days, and plans for a cap were eventually abandoned. A similar reaction is expected this winter. “Our union has never been broken, and never will be,” Bruce Meyer, the interim director of the Major League Baseball Players Association, said in June. And the rank-and-file, which contains a significant number of millionaires, are not afraid to employ the language of class struggle. “If the billionaires are wanting it, they’re billionaires for a reason,” Cody Bellinger, the Yankees All-Star outfielder, said last month. “They want to continue to enhance their portfolio as much as possible. Us players understand that.” Owners have proposed including a salary floor, in addition to a cap, insuring greater upward mobility for the league’s least-paid players. The players have supported something similar, a “Competitive Integrity Tax,” which would penalize teams spending less than a hundred and fifty million dollars on their roster, but have refused to consider a salary cap.

老板们上一次提出工资帽是在1994年夏天。作为回应,球员们举行了罢工,谴责这项提案是反劳工的。那次罢工导致赛季提前结束,世界大赛也被取消(这是自1904年以来首次没有诞生世界冠军)。罢工持续了232天,设立工资帽的计划最终被放弃。今年冬天,预计会出现类似的反应。“我们的工会从未被击垮,也永远不会被击垮,”美国职业棒球大联盟球员工会临时执行主任布鲁斯·迈耶(Bruce Meyer)在六月表示。而包括大量百万富翁在内的普通球员,也并不避讳使用阶级斗争的语言。“如果亿万富翁们想要它,他们成为亿万富翁是有原因的,”纽约洋基队的全明星外野手科迪·贝林杰(Cody Bellinger)上个月说,“他们想尽可能地增加自己的资产组合。我们球员理解这一点。”老板们提议,除了工资帽,还应设立工资底线,以确保联盟中薪资最低的球员有更大的向上流动空间。球员们支持过类似的方案,即“竞争诚信税”,用以惩罚那些阵容薪资支出低于一亿五千万美元的球队,但他们拒绝考虑工资帽。

The league could make some smaller changes. Another C.B.A. proposal by owners is the complete elimination of deferred payments to players—a measure that would also impact the Dodgers. That hundred-and-eighty-million-dollar tax bill the Dodgers owe this year is actually far smaller than it probably should be, because the Dodgers’ front office deferred some of their largest contracts to the far-off future—the M.L.B. equivalent of a creative offshore tax shelter. Ohtani, for instance, is set to make only two million dollars a year for the rest of his contract, which expires at the end of 2033. But, from 2034 to 2043, he will make six hundred and eighty million, filling out the rest of his seven-hundred-million-dollar contract. That salary doesn’t count toward this year’s penalties. In one of the Dodgers’ most egregious uses of this tactic, they’ll be paying Diaz, who is already in his thirties, for the next twenty-one years. Altogether, the team has $1.1 billion tied up in deferred contracts.

联盟可以做一些较小的改变。老板们提出的另一项劳资协议提案是彻底取消球员的延期支付——这项措施同样会影响到道奇队。道奇队今年应缴的那一亿八千万美元税款,实际上远低于它本应缴纳的数额,因为道奇管理层将他们一些最大的合同推迟到了遥远的未来——这相当于大联盟版的离岸避税创意。例如,大谷翔平在他2033年底到期的合同剩余时间里,每年只能拿到两百万美元。但是,从2034年到2043年,他将获得六亿八千万美元,补齐他那份七亿美元合同的剩余部分。这笔薪资不计入今年的罚款。道奇队对这种策略最令人咋舌的一次运用是,他们将向已经三十多岁的迪亚兹支付薪资,持续二十一年。这支球队总共有十一亿美元的资金被捆绑在延期合同上。

Whether smaller changes like that one can serve as the basis for a new C.B.A. remains to be seen. But a work stoppage, which M.L.B. insiders say could potentially last an entire season, would almost certainly be a significant blow to a league that, lately, seems to have got its groove back. Games are shorter than they used to be and attendance is up; ratings have bounced back from a post-COVID slump. For all the complaints about the Dodgers, they are a major factor in driving new fans to the game: Skubal’s Dodgers début was one of the most-watched regular-season games in years. Historically, moments of peak enthusiasm for sports in the U.S. have been associated with all-time great dynasties: think Michael Jordan and the Bulls or Tom Brady and the Patriots. There is an excitement in witnessing history, and there’s also a thrill in rooting for an underdog who might challenge a great team’s dominance. The Dodgers, to their credit, have built a great team—not only by doling out huge salaries but by building an élite development program. (As the flailing Mets emphatically prove, money alone is not enough.) And the Dodgers could absolutely lose a seven-game series, when the vagaries of chance always have their say. After all, going into Saturday night’s game against Arizona, L.A. had lost seven games in a row, their worst stretch in years. And, as the longtime small-market general manager Billy Beane once said, “My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is fucking luck.”

像这样较小的改变能否成为新劳资协议的基础,还有待观察。但是,大联盟内部人士称可能持续整个赛季的停工,几乎肯定会给这个近来似乎重拾活力的联盟带来沉重打击。比赛时间比以前短了,上座率也在上升;收视率已从新冠疫情后的低迷中反弹。尽管对道奇队怨声载道,但他们却是吸引新球迷关注这项运动的主要因素:斯库巴尔的道奇首秀是多年来收视率最高的常规赛之一。从历史上看,美国体育热情最高涨的时刻,往往与史上伟大的王朝球队联系在一起:想想迈克尔·乔丹和芝加哥公牛,或者汤姆·布雷迪和新英格兰爱国者。见证历史令人兴奋,为一支可能挑战强队统治地位的下狗球队加油也同样激动人心。平心而论,道奇队打造了一支伟大的球队——不仅仅是靠开出巨额薪水,还靠建立了一套精英培养体系。(正如苦苦挣扎的大都会队所充分证明的那样,光有钱是不够的。)而且,道奇队完全有可能在七场四胜制的系列赛中输掉,届时,不可捉摸的偶然性总会发挥作用。毕竟,在周六晚上对阵亚利桑那响尾蛇的比赛之前,洛杉矶已经连输七场,这是他们多年来最糟糕的一段战绩。而且,正如长期担任小市场球队总经理的比利·比恩(Billy Beane)曾说过的:“我的工作是让我们进入季后赛。之后发生的事情,全他妈靠运气。”

So, no, the Dodgers haven’t ruined baseball. But the league probably does need both a salary cap and a salary floor, and it definitely doesn’t need another breakdown in C.B.A. negotiations. Also, I can’t blame anyone for hating Los Angeles. Who wants to root for those guys? After posting six strikeouts in his début, Skubal rebuffed talk that his new team had unfair advantages. “Every team could make that acquisition,” he said. “And I don’t really sympathize with people that blame the Dodgers for anything they’ve done.” ♦

所以,不,道奇队没有毁了棒球。但联盟很可能确实既需要工资帽,也需要工资底线,而且绝对不需要劳资协议谈判再次破裂。另外,我也不能怪任何人讨厌洛杉矶。谁会想支持那帮家伙呢?在首秀送出六次三振后,斯库巴尔驳斥了关于他的新球队拥有不公平优势的说法。“每支球队都可以完成那样的交易,”他说,“而且,对于那些因道奇队所做的任何事而指责他们的人,我并不怎么同情。” ♦

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